Strong October Volumes mirror August & September trends
Headlines
​
Solid start to October passenger TSA volumes, which are 1.1 million more than the same period in 2019. At this rate 2023 is going to be a resoundingly better year than 2019 from a passenger volumes in the US for sure.
​
September ended as the strongest month in terms of TSA passenger numbers in 2023 when compared to the 2019 levels. Nearly 2.5 million more passengers travelled through the US in September 2023 v the same period in 2019, making it the second consecutive month of solid recovery indicators.
​​​
-
The summer months of June and July did not see massive increase of airline travelers.
-
In July this year we saw nearly 900,000 less passengers traveling v in 2019
-
However overall when looking at 2023 year to date v 2019, more passengers have traveled thus far in 2023 than the same period in 2019, based on TSA data.
-
While passenger volumes in the US are up, it will be interesting to compare average ticket prices and fuel costs to asses if the noise by certain carriers relative to revenue forecasts will come true.
​
​Recent OAG capacity reports comparing this week v same week in 2019 indicates for North America the domestic capacity is just over 3% higher than same period in 2019 which supports the demand recovery outlook so far, however International capacity is a tad below 2019 period levels but nothing alarming.
Looks like Europe is still below the 2019 levels whilst the biggest capacity increases are in Central America, North Africa and Central Asia.
Flightradar 24
tracks daily the number of commercial flights across the globe. The chart below shows a higher volume of aircraft operating in 2023 using the 7 day moving average as compared to 2019. Yet another indicator supporting the Covid impact on commercial aviation has diminished greatly.
